Buyer’s Report methodology

Metric definitions

Target Discount

The 75th-percentile verified discount — a strong result that roughly 25% of relevant verified buyers matched or beat. This is the report’s primary recommendation.

Average Discount

The arithmetic mean discount of the relevant verified-buyer transactions.

Best Seen

The strongest verified discount in the relevant pool. It shows what has actually happened — not a guaranteed or universally attainable price.

Target Negotiation Price

Configured MSRP × (1 − Target Discount). The Average and Best-Seen equivalents use the same formula with their respective percentages.

Price equivalent

A percentage applied to this exact VIN’s configured MSRP. Because comparable vehicles carry different factory options, percentages — not pooled dollar averages — are the honest basis for a per-VIN dollar figure.

Selling price

The vehicle selling price before sales tax, registration, trade-in, financing, dealer add-on products and manufacturer incentives. It is not an out-the-door price.

How the target is built

1. 1

   Scope the verified-buyer pool

   Gather completed CarWhere buyer-submitted transactions for the exact model year, make and model. Where possible, restrict to the exact trim; expand the trim, then the geography, then the model-year window only when the exact pool is too thin — and label how far the scope expanded.

2. 2

   Compute the discount distribution

   For each transaction, discount % = (MSRP − selling price) ÷ MSRP. From the cleaned pool, compute the Average (mean), the Target (75th percentile), and Best Seen (strongest verified discount).

3. 3

   Anchor to this exact VIN

   Apply each percentage to THIS VIN’s configured MSRP to produce price equivalents. Percentages are the source of truth; equivalents avoid mixing dollar figures across differently-configured vehicles.

4. 4

   Layer context — separately

   Add the estimated dealer invoice, current manufacturer incentives, and advertised local inventory as separate reference sections. None of these change the verified-buyer target, and none are labeled “what buyers paid.”

Trim & geography rules

We seek the tightest credible match first, then widen only as needed — and disclose how far we widened:

1. Exact model year, trim, and local market
2. Exact model year and trim, expanded radius
3. Exact model year and trim, nationwide
4. Same model year and a closely related trim
5. Broader model benchmark, shown separately

Weak matches are never silently blended into the exact-trim dataset. Each transaction carries an exact-trim / same-model and local / regional / nationwide label.

Transaction window & confidence

We favor recent transactions and disclose the date range behind every figure. Confidence is set by sample size and how much the scope had to expand:

What each number comes from

Verified transactions, advertised listings, incentives and the invoice estimate are separate data sets. Advertised MarketCheck listings are never labeled “what buyers paid,” incentives are shown separately (and never summed unless the manufacturer confirms they stack), and the dealer invoice is an estimate — not necessarily the dealer’s final net cost.

Dealer-invoice estimate

The invoice benchmark is estimated from the configured MSRP using standard per-brand and per-segment ratios, plus manufacturer holdback where it applies. It is shown as a band, never a fabricated per-option “dealer cost.” Holdback, factory-to-dealer cash, volume bonuses and regional incentives mean the dealer’s true net cost is usually lower than the invoice — so we present invoice as context, and keep the verified-buyer target as the recommendation.

What this report is not

• Best Seen is not a guaranteed attainable price.
• Advertised prices are asking prices, not completed transactions.
• Incentive availability and eligibility change; confirm with the manufacturer or dealer.
• Taxes, registration, trade-in, financing and optional products are excluded from the selling-price comparison.
• This is not an accident, title, odometer or ownership-history report.