Monthly data study · October 2026 edition
New-Car Price Report: October 2026
New-car buyers paid a median 4.5% below MSRP in the three months through October 2026, across 160 verified CarWhere deals, down from 5.4% in Jul–Sep 2026. Comparing the same models in both windows, discounts moved just −0.1 pts, so most of the shift reflects which cars sold. 45.6% of deals closed below CarWhere's estimated dealer invoice.
By CarWhere Research · Published November 5, 2026 · Data through October 31, 2026 · Download CSV · Press: [email protected]
Key findings
- The median new-car buyer paid 4.5% below MSRP in Aug–Oct 2026 (160 verified deals), −0.9 pts vs. Jul–Sep 2026.
- That is the smallest discount in any of the 9 rolling three-month windows in CarWhere's deal data, back to the window ending February 2026.
- Like-for-like (13 models sold in both windows), the discount changed −0.1 pts, so the headline move is mostly a shift in which models buyers chose.
- 45.6% of deals closed below CarWhere's estimated dealer invoice (−5.4 pts vs. Jul–Sep 2026).
- Hybrid and plug-in hybrid buyers got 3.8% off MSRP vs. 5.6% for gas models (43 and 115 deals).
Median off MSRP, Aug–Oct 2026
4.5%
160 deals
Change vs. Jul–Sep 2026
−0.9 pts
Like-for-like −0.1 pts
Below est. invoice
45.6%
−5.4 pts vs. prior
Top-quartile discount
7.5%
A strong target discount
12-month trend: % off MSRP by month
Single-month medians are shown only for months with at least 30 verified deals; the three-month rolling median is the headline series because it is far more stable at this volume.
| Month | Deals that month | Median that month | 3-month deals | 3-month median | 3-month below invoice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 74 | 4.0% | 160 | 4.5% | 45.6% |
| September 2026 | 5 | — | 247 | 5.4% | 51.0% |
| August 2026 | 81 | 5.1% | 293 | 5.7% | 53.2% |
| July 2026 | 161 | 5.4% | 339 | 5.5% | 54.3% |
| June 2026 | 51 | 6.8% | 741 | 6.1% | 58.7% |
| May 2026 | 127 | 5.1% | 1,345 | 5.7% | 50.5% |
| April 2026 | 563 | 6.4% | 1,754 | 6.0% | 53.1% |
| March 2026 | 655 | 5.3% | 1,472 | 6.0% | 54.1% |
| February 2026 | 536 | 6.4% | 962 | 6.4% | 61.5% |
| January 2026 | 281 | 6.8% | 426 | — | — |
| December 2025 | 145 | 5.5% | 145 | — | — |
By brand
Brands with at least 10 verified deals in Aug–Oct 2026. Change is shown only when the brand also cleared 10 deals in Jul–Sep 2026.
| Brand | Median % off MSRP (Aug–Oct 2026) | Deals | Jul–Sep 2026 | Deals | Change | Below est. invoice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAM | 10.4% | 10 | 10.6% | 13 | −0.2 pts | 100.0% |
| Toyota | 3.9% | 57 | 4.6% | 53 | −0.7 pts | 8.8% |
| Volkswagen | 3.9% | 42 | 7.3% | 55 | −3.4 pts | 50.0% |
| Kia | 3.9% | 16 | 4.0% | 13 | −0.1 pts | 68.8% |
By segment
| Segment | Median % off MSRP (Aug–Oct 2026) | Deals | Jul–Sep 2026 | Deals | Change | Below est. invoice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pickup truck | 8.2% | 21 | 10.0% | 25 | −1.8 pts | 76.2% |
| Mainstream SUV | 4.4% | 108 | 5.1% | 121 | −0.7 pts | 47.2% |
| Mainstream car | 2.7% | 28 | 5.1% | 59 | −2.4 pts | 17.9% |
EV vs. hybrid vs. gas
| Fuel type | Median % off MSRP (Aug–Oct 2026) | Deals | Jul–Sep 2026 | Deals | Change | Below est. invoice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas | 5.6% | 115 | 5.8% | 198 | −0.2 pts | 60.0% |
| Hybrid / plug-in hybrid | 3.8% | 43 | 5.0% | 42 | −1.2 pts | 7.0% |
| Electric (EV) | — | 2 | — | 7 | — | — |
| 3 months ending | Gas | Hybrid / PHEV | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 5.6% (115) | 3.8% (43) | — (2) |
| Sep 2026 | 5.8% (198) | 5.0% (42) | — (7) |
| Aug 2026 | 6.1% (243) | 5.0% (44) | — (6) |
| Jul 2026 | 5.7% (291) | 4.6% (38) | 9.0% (10) |
| Jun 2026 | 6.2% (638) | 5.2% (75) | 9.9% (28) |
| May 2026 | 5.9% (1,128) | 3.8% (187) | 9.6% (30) |
| Apr 2026 | 6.2% (1,474) | 4.0% (254) | 9.6% (26) |
| Mar 2026 | 6.2% (1,250) | 4.1% (215) | — (7) |
| Feb 2026 | 6.5% (846) | 4.8% (110) | — (6) |
Most and least discounted models
Every model with at least 5 verified deals in Aug–Oct 2026, ranked by median % off MSRP. At this sample size treat single models as indicative, not precise. Deepest: RAM 1500 (10.0%), Toyota Camry (6.5%), Volkswagen Tiguan (5.9%). Smallest: Toyota Grand Highlander (1.3%), Volkswagen Golf R (2.0%), Toyota RAV4 (3.3%).
| Rank | Model | Segment | Median % off MSRP | Deals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RAM 1500 | Pickup truck | 10.0% | 7 |
| 2 | Toyota Camry | Mainstream car | 6.5% | 5 |
| 3 | Volkswagen Tiguan | Mainstream SUV | 5.9% | 15 |
| 4 | Nissan Frontier | Pickup truck | 5.6% | 5 |
| 5 | Kia Telluride | Mainstream SUV | 4.0% | 13 |
| 6 | Toyota Land Cruiser | Mainstream SUV | 4.0% | 5 |
| 7 | Toyota RAV4 | Mainstream SUV | 3.3% | 30 |
| 8 | Volkswagen Golf R | Mainstream car | 2.0% | 14 |
| 9 | Toyota Grand Highlander | Mainstream SUV | 1.3% | 6 |
Why do some deals close below invoice?
Invoice is what the manufacturer bills the dealer, not the dealer's final cost. Holdback (often 1–3% of MSRP or invoice, refunded to the dealer after the sale), factory-to-dealer cash on slow or outgoing models, and monthly volume bonuses all sit underneath it. That is why the below-invoice share swings with incentive programs and brand mix: in this edition it ranges from 8.8% for Toyota to 100.0% for RAM. Trim-level detail is in dealer invoice vs. what buyers actually paid.
Methodology and limitations
Source. Verified buyer-submitted deal sheets in CarWhere's database: moderated (approved) records only, deduplicated by VIN (or by dealer, price, MSRP and date when no VIN is present), with both MSRP and selling price present. New vehicles only: model year no older than the year before submission. Discounts outside −20% to +40% of MSRP are treated as entry errors and dropped (0 this edition). Only aggregates are published; no VINs, dealers or buyer details.
Measure. Discount = (MSRP − selling price) ÷ MSRP for each deal, before taxes, fees and trade-in. We report medians, which resist outliers better than averages (the Aug–Oct 2026 average was 5.3%). The month is the month the deal sheet was submitted to CarWhere, which can trail the purchase date.
Windows and thresholds. Monthly volume is too thin for honest per-brand monthly cells, so every edition uses a rolling three-calendar-month window (Aug–Oct 2026) and compares it to the window one month earlier (Jul–Sep 2026); the two windows share two months, so month-over-month changes are smoothed by design. A national median needs 30+ deals; a brand, segment or fuel cell 10+; a model 5+. Every row shows its deal count.
Mix. The national median moves when buyers shift between brands and models, not only when prices change. The like-for-like figure (−0.1 pts) is the deal-weighted average change in median discount across the 13 models with at least 3 deals in both windows.
Models, segments, fuel type. Models are matched exactly (spelling variants merge; a Corolla Cross never pools with a Corolla); 16 deals whose model name could not be matched exactly were left out. Deal sheets carry no fuel-type or body field, so both are inferred from make, model and trim: hybrid/PHEV covers explicit hybrid, PHEV, Prime and 4xe trims, hybrid-only nameplates (e.g. Prius, Sienna, Crown) and models that went hybrid-only in the U.S. (Camry from MY2025, Land Cruiser from MY2024, RAV4 from MY2026). Luxury = premium brands.
Estimated invoice. Invoice is CarWhere's researched invoice-to-MSRP estimate for the brand, model or trim applied to each deal's own MSRP; it is never inferred from what buyers paid. Brands without researched invoice data are left out of the below-invoice share.
Limitations. Buyers who submit deals to CarWhere are not a random sample of all U.S. buyers and likely negotiate harder than average. Volume varies month to month (see the trend table; fewer than 30 verified deals in September 2026), and a few brands dominate some windows. Treat model-level figures as indicative. Editions are frozen when published and are not revised; later moderation of older deals appears only in later editions.
How to cite or embed
Journalists, researchers and creators may republish these figures with a link to this edition. The edition URL below is permanent and its numbers never change.
Suggested citation: CarWhere Research, “New-Car Price Report: October 2026,” www.carwhere.com/research/studies/new-car-price-report/2026-10, published November 5, 2026.
Quotable sentence
According to CarWhere's New-Car Price Report (October 2026), new-car buyers paid a median 4.5% below MSRP in Aug–Oct 2026, based on 160 verified buyer deals.
Link (HTML)
<a href="https://www.carwhere.com/research/studies/new-car-price-report/2026-10">CarWhere New-Car Price Report (October 2026)</a>
Data: CSV for this edition · Press: [email protected]
Get this data via API
Building a pricing tool, newsroom dashboard or research model? Verified buyer-paid pricing and estimated invoice data are available through the CarWhere Developer API. For licensed bulk access to the aggregates behind this report, write [email protected].
Use the numbers on your car
What people paid
Verified buyer-paid prices for your exact model, by state.
Invoice vs. what buyers paid
Estimated dealer invoice next to real prices, trim by trim.
Shop new cars
Search live inventory and compare asking prices to this month's discounts.
What counts as a good deal for one car? See how much below MSRP is a good deal. For the all-time picture by brand, see the Discount Reality Index.
All editions
- October 2026 · 4.5% off MSRP (Aug–Oct 2026, 160 deals)
A new edition is published at the start of each month. First published November 5, 2026.
FAQ
How much below MSRP are people paying for new cars right now?
In the three months through October 2026, the median verified CarWhere buyer paid 4.5% below MSRP (about $2,140 off), across 160 deals. The top quarter of buyers got 7.5% or more off, which is a strong target discount for a mainstream new car.
Are new-car discounts getting bigger or smaller?
Smaller this month: the three-month median moved −0.9 pts, from 5.4% (Jul–Sep 2026) to 4.5% (Aug–Oct 2026). Comparing only models sold in both windows, the change was −0.1 pts, so part of any move reflects which cars people bought, not only pricing.
What share of new cars sell below dealer invoice?
45.6% of verified deals in Aug–Oct 2026 closed below CarWhere's estimated dealer invoice (73 of 160 deals on brands with researched invoice data). That is possible because holdback, factory-to-dealer cash and volume bonuses sit below invoice, so a dealer can sell under invoice and still profit.
Do EVs and hybrids get bigger discounts than gas cars?
In Aug–Oct 2026, hybrid and plug-in hybrid buyers paid a median 3.8% off MSRP (43 deals) vs. 5.6% for gas models (115 deals). Only 2 EV deals closed in the window, below our 10-deal publishing bar, so no EV figure is published this month.
Which new cars had the biggest and smallest discounts this month?
Among models with at least 5 verified deals in Aug–Oct 2026, the RAM 1500 had the largest median discount (10.0%, 7 deals) and the Toyota Grand Highlander the smallest (1.3%, 6 deals).
Where does this data come from, and how often is it updated?
From verified buyer-submitted deal sheets in CarWhere's database (moderated and deduplicated; only aggregates are published). A new edition is published at the start of every month and frozen; past editions stay online at their own URLs so cited numbers never change.